The "Silver Tsunami" – The Deck Gets Stacked Against Us

Part 2 of 4…

When we last visited the question of the pending “Silver Tsunami”, the coming retirement tidal wave of California’s and the nation’s local government managers, the situation was at crisis level.  Today, almost two-thirds of California and the nation’s local government managers are at, or are within, five years of retirement, with not enough experienced people available to replace them.
We examined some factors that contributed to the Silver Tsunami: the fact that an employment gap was to be anticipated because the older Baby Boomer generation (those born 1946-1964) simply outnumbered Generation X (those born 1964-1980) by anywhere from 30 to 35 million.  We questioned the impact popular political rhetoric might have had on those that chose or didn’t choose local government as their preferred career path.
But there’s more to this story.
First, let’s take a quick look at how the city manager position has evolved.
Looking to work long hours?  For a sometimes slight bump in pay over,  for example,  a department head,  a  city manager gets to increase his work hours significantly.  Not only are there late night council meetings but also on almost any given weekend there are civic or cultural events that you are expected to attend.
Oh, and job security?  You work for five or seven individuals who don’t always get along with each other, have their own egos, and can fire you at just about anytime.
Uproot your family?  In many cases, just to get this city manager position you might have had to relocate your family.  If it’s your first city manager position it might be in a less than desirable location, but hey, you’ve got to make your bones somewhere.
And we’ve wondered why folks are not flocking to fill these positions?
Baby Boomers were raised in a culture where hard work and long hours were expected by those in senior management positions.  Concepts like having a balanced life were not even part of the popular vernacular until Baby Boomers were in their mid-careers.
Maybe Generation X took a long look at the quality of the Boomer life style and said there has to be a better way.  Maybe many of the best and brightest of Generation X looked to professions that would not have such domination over their lives.
Maybe, right under the noses of everyone involved in local government, the city manager position evolved into a position that simply was not as attractive as it once was.
But, hold on, the fates were not done stacking the deck against us.  There were still other factors that might be contributing to the crisis.
The International City/County Management Association (ICMA) has been involved for almost 15 years, first in identifying the pending retirement crisis and then offering potential solutions.  High on the list of options for local governments to consider was the establishment of a formal succession plan.
As anyone who has worked in a city or corporation of any size will tell you, succession planning can be expensive.  Depending on work load, or other staffing issues, subordinate positions created for succession planning can sometimes be viewed as having overlapping or even duplicate responsibilities.  Those positions were the first to be cut when the Great Recession hit.
So it’s not surprising that with the staff lay-offs, hiring freezes or furloughs that almost every local government has experienced in the last decade, the concept of having a formal succession plan in place has gained little traction. According to ICMA’s retirement survey, by 2013 less than 10 percent of local governments surveyed had a formal succession plan in place.
When the fates stacked the deck against us, they did it in multiple ways.  On one front we had an easily anticipated employment gap due to a population drop from Boomers to Gen X.  Then we had factors like social and cultural shifts in our society that were more difficult to predict, react to and plan for.  Finally the fiscal onslaught brought on by the Great Recession just flat knocked the stuffing out of local government.   The end result:  The Silver Tsunami is coming and it’s coming fast.
But help is on the way.  In our next article we’ll talk about changes that are happening in local government that are having a positive effect on the crisis.  We’ll look at what organizations like ICMA are doing and we’ll have insights from current and retired local government officials, as well as those just starting their local government careers.  It’s all interesting stuff, so please stay tuned.
 
Click here to go to Part 3 of this series.

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